It’s almost the middle of June and NFL teams are opening mandatory minicamps this week. If you’re playing in a fantasy football dynasty league, you’re likely going to be holding your rookie draft at some point during the summer. For myself, the rookie draft is approaching on Friday and I’ve got the No. 4 pick. It’s a tough spot for a lot of dynasty managers when looking at the draft board. It’s the first pick in the first round of rookie drafts where you seemingly have to make a tougher decision. At least if you’re in a Superflex league. Below I’m going to go over what I’m thinking with the No. 4 pick. We’ll also look at my roster and what a potential trade might look like if I offload the pick.
Fantasy football dynasty
Roster overview
Injuries were rough in Year 1 of this dynasty league for me. QB Joe Burrow and RB Nick Chubb were the major casualties while Mike Williams was also in that group. Burrow as my most important player in SF and most of the season, I was left riding Geno Smith and Sam Howell. Going into Year 2, it would be great to add a QB to pair with Burrow long-term. We also may have to wait another year or two to address that position depending on how Burrow bounces back.
As for the core skill position players, we have RB Travis Etienne, WR Calvin Ridley, WR Tee Higgins, WR Romeo Doubs, TE Jake Ferguson and WR Tyler Lockett. The bench isn’t exactly lush with talent unfortunately. Patriots WR DeMario Douglas is the most promising young player on my roster. So this is a pretty important draft for me when it comes to adding depth at running back. Wide receiver we should be OK while tight end we could add a player or two in case anything happens with Ferguson.
Who to take with the 4th overall pick
Assuming QB Caleb Williams, WR Marvin Harrison Jr., and QB Jayden Daniels are all off the board, it becomes a tougher decision to make, at least in my eyes. Ideally, one of the teams drafting ahead of me goes WR instead of Daniels at No. 2 or No. 3 and we can snag the Commanders QB. You can make the case for Giants WR Malik Nabers or Bears WR Rome Odunze in the top-3 in dynasty rookie drafts. But that really comes down to format and need. In a SF league, I’d be very surprised if Daniels makes it to me at No. 4. But if that does happen, he’d be the pick.
So we’re choosing between Nabers, Odunze or a QB. If we went QB it would be forcing Pats QB Drake Maye or Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy. Both those players could sit most of the 2024 season, so it would be more of a long-term play and it’d be a pretty risky move. The safe move is to go with one of the WRs, who should be able to help immediately. This brings us to our main issue. Wide receiver isn’t really a position of need for me. Sure, we could use a no-doubt No. 1 wideout like Nabers or Odunze. Nabers should turn into one of the best WRs in the NFL but New York’s QB situation is rough. If Williams lives up to the hype for Chicago, Odunze could be his primary target for years down the road.
But again, we do have Ridley, Higgins, Lockett, Doubs and Douglas. It is a 3-WR, double-FLEX, plus the SuperFlex in terms of startable roster spots, however. So adding more WR depth is fine given I can play six WRs in my starting lineup if I truly wanted to (or if it made sense). Plus, we can address RB later in the rookie draft since it was deemed as a weak class. We all know RBs are going to emerge and be fantasy relevant as rookies, so it’s just a matter of making good selections in the other three rounds of the draft.
If I’m keeping the pick and Williams, Daniels and MHJ are all gone, I think Nabers is the best way to go. QB Daniel Jones has a lot of question marks but when healthy, he never had a WR close to the talent level of Nabers on the roster. It’s tough identifying the best WR Jones has thrown to in his career. Darius Slayton? Sterling Shepard? Kenny Golladay? It’s a rough group. So assuming Jones doesn’t get hurt, Nabers should be fine as a rookie. Long-term, you’d think the Giants address QB and add someone via trade/free agency or draft a future starter. But can I afford to wait for Nabers to reach his ceiling and compete then? Or should I trade the No. 4 pick? Let’s take a look.
Should I trade the No. 4 pick?
I’ve already gotten offers for the No. 4 pick. The best potential package included WR Deebo Samuel, RB Josh Jacobs and a late-round pick for No. 4 overall. That deal would give me a starting WR and RB to go with Etienne, Ridley, Higgins, Burrow, Geno, Lockett, etc. I’m high on Jacobs as a Packer. I think in that offense, Jacobs can be a top-5 RB in fantasy in 2024. Samuel is risky. He’s had some injury issues and was supplanted as the top receiving option by WR Brandon Aiyuk in 2023. The 49ers also signed Christian McCaffrey to a new contract and he eats up targets from Deebo. So really the only way this works in my favor is if Samuel somehow recaptures 2021, when he led the NFL in yards per reception and had nearly 1,800 total yards and 14 total TDs.
Trading the pick for a few players and a pick could position me to compete for the title in 2024. All I would have to do is make a few more moves and land on the later draft picks. In this league, we can trade future assets, so I could offload a few 2025 picks to add a QB if a team is looking to sell. Even when projecting that, it wouldn’t appear I’m a lock to win it all, which is the only scenario in which this strategy pays off. I could shop for a better offer or draft Nabers and figure out a deal after the draft.
Final Thoughts
I think the best path forward is to draft Nabers assuming Daniels or MHJ doesn’t fall to No. 4. From there, I can at least see how the rest of my rookie draft goes and which positions are more important. Chubb could bounce back but I definitely need RB depth behind Etienne. I could deal Nabers for an established fantasy back as well as a rookie back, plus whomever I can add in the draft. I could deal Nabers for a package that includes a QB to take over for Geno or just be insurance in case something happens to Burrow. I’d have a lot of time before the start of the season to make a decision on Nabers or keep him and see how the first few weeks go with what I have.
