South Shore businesses with 370,000 workers face significant flooding risk, study finds (2025)

More than 43,000 businesses that employ about 370,000 people on Long Island’s South Shore are estimated to face a significant chance of flooding, potentially imperiling the area's economic vibrancy, according to experts and a study from the Long Island Regional Planning Council.

The businesses together are estimated to generate roughly $56 billion in annual sales, according to the Long Island Economic Flood Risk Study, presented in a video conference on Thursday.

Nearly 7,400 are in the high-risk or very high-risk categories, the study said. They have an annual sales of about $8.5 billion and have an estimated 81,652 employees.

The study, which includes an interactive map, comes amid a decades-long trend of rising extreme precipitation in the Northeast since the late 1950s and in the aftermath of recent disastrous rains that left behind wreckage to businesses, homes, and other infrastructure in parts of Suffolk County, researchers said.

“As we saw with Superstorm Sandy in 2011, the devastation from severe flooding impacts not only residents along the south shore but commercial properties,” John Cameron, chair of the Long Island Regional Planning Council, said in a statement. “It is vital to quantify the potential economic hit our regional economy could take from the next big storm, and work with all levels of government on developing measures and strategies that can reduce the risk.”

To do this, the study looked at jobs at risk in flood zones, along with companies and revenue, experts say. Researchers looked at information such as a business’ location data and Federal Emergency Management Agency flood zones, as well as expanded areas.

In the study, a very high-risk area is a FEMA 100-year Flood Zone, a location that yearly has a 1% chance of flooding, according to FEMA.

A high-risk area is defined as a FEMA 500-year Flood Zone, an area with a place that every year as a 0.2% chance of flooding, researchers said.

The medium-risk area is considered the zone that is a quarter mile from a FEMA 100-year Flood Zone and up to Montauk Highway-27A/Merrick Road, the study said.

The low-risk areas defined in the study are considered above the medium-risk areas up to Sunrise Highway.

The study estimates that roughly 370,000 of Long Island’s 1.5 million jobs are in low to very-high flood-risk zones, according to the presentation, which cited the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Within the study, areas that could see some of the highest economic impacts on their estimated annual sales volume include Freeport (about $3 billion), Lindenhurst (roughly $2.5 billion) and Rockville Centre (nearly $2.7 billion).

For instance, in Freeport, an estimated 464 businesses that together have an approximate annual sale volume of $7.2 billion are in the very high-risk category.

Lindenhurst had an estimated 58 businesses in the very high-risk category but around 630 in the low-risk category, according to estimates in the study.

However, the key to avoiding this type of economic fallout can be taking on adaptation projects now, according to the presentation and multiple members of the Long Island Regional Planning Council.

Some of those projects can include a storm surge barrier, a retention pond for elevated roads, and wastewater system upgrades.

Freeport Mayor Robert Kennedy said the village had improved the stormwater drainage system to reduce nuisance flooding.

Kennedy, also on the Long Island Regional Planning Council, said he still wants surge barrier gates.

“This is something I think that we have to work on and prevent the flooding, not figure out where it's going to flood,” said Kennedy.

Cameron, the chair of the Long Island Regional Planning Council, echoed the sentiment that more work needs to be considered to help mitigate the risk.

There are “many communities which are really getting adversely impacted,” he said. “But again, we haven't fully addressed this, and wishful thinking is not going to make it go away."